Market report for February 9th 2010

by Bruno Voisin on February 9, 2010

Despite a short excursion in the morning above the key level on low 1060s (MM/Fib), ES returned to erosion mode, i.e. some bearish congestion. The current level of volatility and noise can cause another test of the key level, but the overall trend will remain down.  We won’t give a definite target today, but we’ll keep an eye on range lows (half a ‘quantum’, i.e. to the mid 1040s), and probably to the low 1030s (full quantum) within a week or so.
TF provided us with a much clearer picture.  The bounce stopped exactly on the 594 pivot level to resume south.  While the mid to high 580s are support levels on the daily chart, the selling pressure is still strong enough to now aim toward the low 560s, and probably to the low 530s in a few weeks.
EURUSD: the fall of the Euro has been synonymous to profit taking on our indices, and yet, we may see our support levels ([1.367-1375]) holding.  EURUSD is indeed trying to bounce softly and may reach 1.39 again at some point.  There is way too little energy to confirm that scenario though.
We’ll therefore very cautiously follow shorter time frames for now, with 1.371 being our first hurdle today.  Correlations with indices will have to be monitored closely also.
( Posted 5:40 AM UK )
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Weekly report for February 8th to 12th 2010

by Bruno Voisin on February 8, 2010

ES fell to 1040 last week, to then bounce to the 1061 level.  This is actually a crucial pivot level which will determine whether prices will resume their downward course or not. If passed, ES will aim at 1080 (16 points quantum leap, i.e. half the normal price range for ES), or will dwindle back to the 1040s.  The longer term trend (daily chart) points toward continuation of current erosion, and even somewhat lower on the weekly chart.
TF is obviously very much correlated to ES, but we always try and follow both indices to see whether salient targets are easier to read on one symbol or the other.  TF hit our 578 target last week with enough energy to just about bounce to Fib level (591).  Like for ES, the low 590s constitute an important test level, but it certainly looks like the daily and weekly charts are pushing further down.  We do notice that the chart may find a temporary bottom today or tomorrow.  On the weekly chart, we will pay attention to the mid 570s being broken, which would open the flood gates to the high 530.
EURUSD has not settled yet, and could go lower even though this is a very strong support area. On the short term, failure to pass 1.367 can send the Euro down a bit, but such a high volatility environment can stretch levels quite deeply without breaking.  We therefore keep our [1367-1375] support area as valid still.  If prices stay below our key level for an extended period of time today, our next target around 1.341 (weekly) will come to the fore.
( Posted Monday 8th, 6:10 AM UK )

NB: As a reminder, ES and TF are the continuous futures contract symbols found in TradeStation representing S&P500 and Russell-2000 emini futures.  EURUSD is the spot forex quotation for the €/$ exchange rate.

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Market Report for February 5th 2010

February 5, 2010

ES fell as expected, but faster and lower than anticipated. Long time readers of this report will have noted the quantum behaviour of ES (and many other markets), with prices often finding equilibrium on equi-distant levels (32 points for hourly ES for a long time). ES could have stalled in the high 1060s but selling [...]

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Market Outlook for February 4th 2010

February 4, 2010

ES was kind of congested yesterday as expected, and we’ll check how long it can sustain prices above 1093.  The daily chart still shows some potential to creep higher, but lower time frames are almost in a ‘airhole’ situation which could trigger some selling later on. The exact reversal point is not easy to determine [...]

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Market Outlook for February 3rd 2010

February 3, 2010

ES passed our retracement target yesterday by a few points to reach a minor Fib level late in the day. It could creep to 1108 to 1110 now, maybe even higher later on.  At this point in time, some conflicting forces across time frames  point for a slow down in intraday time frames while the [...]

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Market Outlook for February 2nd 2010

February 2, 2010

ES bounced off the stall level on 1070 but is constrained in a channel on the 60mins chart, 1095 being a very strong resistance level just north of the channel boundary.  The daily chart has now entered the strong retracement potential configuration we picked up last week, and would confirm a rise to 1095 also. [...]

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Weekly report for February 1st to 5th 2010

January 31, 2010

On Friday morning, ES bounced to MM pivot level (low 1090s) to only resume its downward course.  The next stop on the way down is near the next support level around 1060 to 1062. The daily chart however shows a huge oversold situation hence a good retracement potential is there some time this week, and [...]

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Market Report for January 29th 2010

January 29, 2010

ES did not even get to the test levels around 1110 and collapsed early in the day, right down to the our target in the mid 1070s we gave on the weekly report.  The 30mins chart provided a good picture of a Fib pattern retracing to the high 1080s, so despite the apparent fall, there [...]

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Market Outlook for January 28th 2010

January 28, 2010

I made a small mistake (nobody’s perfect) in my ES evaluation of the bouncing point which i thought would be a little lower, the reason being to pick the dominant time frame between the 60mins chart and daily.  The picture indeed changed by midday. So, ES retraced upward and could now hit 1106, and maybe [...]

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Market Report for January 27th 2010

January 27, 2010

ES is a little congested on our 60 mins time frame, so as mentioned yesterday, we would rather focus on the daily chart, which is bearish while sitting on a support level right now. Having said that the 30mins chart is following a Fib pattern from yesterday’s high and reached a target on 1086.  Bearish [...]

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