ES passed our retracement target yesterday by a few points to reach a minor Fib level late in the day. It could creep to 1108 to 1110 now, maybe even higher later on. At this point in time, some conflicting forces across time frames point for a slow down in intraday time frames while the day chart points strongly to 1110. The weekly chart however is still on a downward retracement course unless it tests and passes 1120 to 1125 within a week or two.
TF is now aiming at 617, the real test being in the 625 area. Again, we do not change our longer term scenario, i.e. the market needs to retrace further down later on. Since our scenarios need to be monitored and adjusted dynamically, we’ll check the market behavious near those salient levels (i.e. around 625 for TF and the 1125 area for ES).
EURUSD: current retracement looks weak, but as mentioned in previous reports, could surprise us and reach 1.40 then the lower 1.41. The lower intraday time frames have to pass a 1.3977 pivot level first, which could send the Euro down again. This is our preferred scenario for the day.
( Posted 6:50 AM UK )
