Market Report for April 18th 2011

by bv on April 16, 2011

Daily morning market report on futures and forex: ES, TF, EURUSD and US (T-Bond Fut.)


- ES bounced on 1300 as anticipated to test and finally pass 1313. It now seems set on a course to 1322, maybe higher. (2H+) may indeed try to move back to former range (1322-1336), although (D+) point more for bullish congestion than outright resumption of the fantastic bull run seen since mid 2010. We do note that lower (1H-) time frames look less optimistic ahead of a resistance which looks strong enough at that level.

-TF followed suit, bumping all day (UK) on the anticipated 828 resistance, to finally close the week on a take off to higher (4H) Fib on mid 830s. The index should keep rising to 840-843 test area, where like ES the market will have to decide about moving back to a more active playground near recent highs. At this point in time, it remains a possible but quite uncertain scenario. Retracement potential is minimal until test level is reached though.

- EURUSD took a breather from the 450-452 area to find support again near 440. Support looks pretty strong but at the same time the bounce potential somewhat weaker. It is not worrying yet, but we will have to be cautious when the Euro approaches the same test area again. In case of breakout, a return to 433 or even 427-428 would not come as a surprise.

- US rose to (4H) highs as anticipated, and could well keep going purely on momentum to high 121s. There is even a potential (D) Fib target 123, which looks unconvincing at this early stage. It is recommended to remain conservative and label the current (D+) environment as “bullish congestion” rather than a recovery.

( Posted Sat AM UK ) – EURUSD Twitter updates on Monday.

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