ES behaved exactly as anticipated yesterday, bouncing on high 1030s to creep back to low/mid 1050s. This is only a modest retracement, possibly to low 1060s where it will be interesting to see how ES behaves. The bearish congestion visible on higher (4H+/D/W) time frames, and we can’t discard lower lows within a week or so.
TF is obviously following the same dynamics, although its bearishness has been leading for quite a while. It penetrated the 592 level a little without breaking, typical of an attempt to stop the fall near current lows. We then saw a bounce above 600 which should have a very limited follow-through. Just like ES, TF is in bearish congestion mode on higher time frames. Difficult to gauge where TF will end if the next support levels (578 – 562) are broken over the next couple of weeks.
EURUSD has gone into some back-throttle as expected. It would now need to clearly break the 1.2695 level on the upside which could release some buying to (4H+) Fibs. However this would only be a regular upward retracement in a (D/W) downtrend looking for that support which would confirm that the 1H2010 fall is now history. This has been our scenario for quite a while now.
( Posted 7:45 AM UK )