ES was definitely only worth looking at on intraday time frames. The congestion or confusion at daily/weekly channel is still causing volatility which provides short term trading opportunities.
The daily chart bounced nicely, but the energy is not qute there, and the weekly chart is more looking at sinking again soon.
Our scenario for today is some erosion to Fib retracement levels, the lower one being quite crucial (MM). We can therefore anticipate quite some buying if we get there. The upside potential is there but 1110 will be hard to break at least early in the day. Upper 1110s are less likely but still possible though.
The frequency of this report makes it impossible to provide intraday reversal points, but support was indeed found although a little lower than the 622 I anticipated, andTF is now creeping back, also trying to reach the target we had earlier in the week. It will be a little difficult as we have a few hurdles on the way which may exhaust buyers. We’ll first note 633, and then maybe 637 as possible targets. 641 is still there, but we have to remain patient and cautious also.
EURUSD has a very strong support area in the low to mid 1.34s on higher time frames, and it is impossible to zoom in for a more precise figure there.
The lower time frames seem to have given the 1.346 stall level enough stamina to bounce back to the higher part of the trading range. We’ll now check 1.355 for support, but the upward bias is very weak anyhow. Having said that, the true test is definitely still 1.367 so although bears still dominate the long term picture and could cause a lengthy continuation of this trading range, behaviour on the upper range boundary can provide us with some surprises.
( Posted late 8:50 AM UK )
Update 6:45PM UK: EURUSD tested 1.367 as planned. Resistance is too strong there for now, but will be tested again. Bears may decide to rest for a bit.
