February has been pretty much undecisive, first down, then bouncing up to Fib PR2, to now hesitate again about the way forward. How does this first week of March look like ?
The current situation is again a congestion with an upward bias (intraday), pure congestion (daily) and a congestion with a downward bias (weekly). A test of current highs i.e. around Fib and MM stall (1107-1110) will determine the direction for the next week or two. At this point in time, we would favour a pullback though.
TF is in a similar situation with very little steam left to carry it to 632, so it could very well test 623-625 for support again first. Congestion in that particular range can last a little while on Monday until TF breaks out either to 641 or down to 615. TF has overall stalled around current levels so, unless new energy is unleashed from some economic news or upon a breakout as per above, a return to some erosion should dominate the scene for the next few days. We’ll have to update our scenario for the second half of the week.
EURUSD has been fairly predictable lately, reaching our 1.367 target to then retrace a bit. It should technically try and give it a go again, but energy starts lacking, and there is no indication yet at this point in time, that that level will be broken. Having said that, conditions are met for a return to near 1.41 … We will therefore watch the 1.367 level very carefully and position ourselves accordingly.
( Posted sunday 3 PM UK )
