ES reached our first retracement target early in the day, and quickly sank to 1180 (our 2nd target) to try and settle on 1172. This is absolutely in line with our previous reports.
We do now have (2H/4H) down channels, with maybe a lost moment of hesitation on (D) with ES just below resilience level (~1180). ES should however dip lower on momentum, so we’ll first watch out for some eventual profit taking to then aim back at lows then 1164. Only the (W) chart, lagging faster time frames seems to point a necessary upward retracement still (~1187?) before engaging into a more decsive reversal.
TF here provides some additional cues, possibly affecting ES also, with a now bearish congestion mode just above 700 (a target given yesterday). We could therefore see some minor profit taking, particularly justified as 700 is also the resilience test level on (D). Bearish congestion should however eventually force further testing of lows down to 695. Like ES, there is despite this selling spike no indication yet of a clear reversal on (D). This selling bout may just stop over the next week above 680 to carry on congesting on (D+/W). The tone is however changing and a (W) down swing remains possible as we approach year end.
Like our indices, EURUSD exceeded our expectations by sinking straight to below 1.35. Fortunately there was no hesitation on 1.355 so it was easy to hang on the slide to stall level on 1.349. A pause would certainly be in order here (~1.347) despite remaining selling pressure. Lows could be tested again (2H-). We however still see a potential lash back on (D) or at least some profit taking back to 1.367 if/when bearishness abates a bit and (1H-) turns around over the next day or two.
T-Bond Fut. (@US): Did not quite reach the much anticipated 125 level where it bounced (4H-), but bearish congestion on (D) should pull US to test bearish stall (mid 126) and probably lows again. (W) has not turned around yet.
( Posted 7:45 AM UK )
Please note that there will be no report on Friday morning (traveling). An update will be provided around noon UK.
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