As said in the late Friday report ES is a little difficult to follow at the moment. We’ve had conflicting patterns across time frames which are now slowly aligning again. ES penetrated the (D) resilience level (~1180) for a short while, then bounced close to 1200, confirmed 1187 as new support and should now rise to 1203 – 1205 with difficulty. It may even congest and stall ahead of expected target.
At this point in time, it is unlikely that that level will be passed even at (4H+/D) level, and on the contrary should reverse and pull down to lows again. It isn’t clear yet whether (D+/W) is ready to tilt, but preconditions lining up indeed.
TF being more resilient than anticipated, we called for a 725 target (Twitter) which we almost hit. That target is still valid on residual bullishness, even if a weekend break can always bring a few surprises. Like ES, TF should reverse at (4H+/D) around 725, 730 at best, and yet, (D+/W) while they could be subject to some profit taking, are not yet engaging into a clear reversal. We may just have extended congestion after testing (4H) range lows again. (2H/4H) may be easier to follow for swing traders.
EURUSD unfortunately ended the week exactly on the 1.367 key level, leaving us with no definite cues on the way forward. We even have conflicting information between (1H-) where that level is now a strong resistance and (2H+) where despite a penetration below 1.35 there is still a chance of a higher bounce. Having said that, the balance is in favour of faster time frames so we will be watching the ley level with an expectation of further erosion. So, unless the weekend break provides us with a gap on Sunday night, the Euro may remain in bullish congestion above 1.36 for a while, then possibly fall to 1.353.
T-Bond Fut. (@US): Still in bearish congestion on (4H+). Support level (~125) is very strong though. Some may in the meantime be interested in following US on (2H-) time frames, with due consideration that (4H+) are definitely looking at testing lows again.
( Posted Sat PM UK )
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Monday morning update:
EU Plan to save Irish banks (80bn €) boosts the Euro, now aiming to 1.379
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