Market Report for Oct 17th 2012

by bv on October 17, 2012

EURUSD rose quite steadily yesterday, as indicated in last reports, only a little faster, to now toy with (W) range highs where the Euro should stall and congest. We note that resistance levels are not fully aligned; Kase would have stopped on 306 now bullish resilience level thus giving an indication of a possible last push to 312 area or not (probable scenario).

EURGBP followed suit to an extent to hit 813 Fib target, and possibly 815. Strangely enough, it is not clear where the next target is, yet if confirmed, we may see a significant rise on long (D+) time frames to … 826-828 area ! We shall remain cautiously optimistic though, at least a new higher support (former resistance) is tested.

GBPUSD reached 612 as mentioned yesterday, possibly aiming for 614 Fib target and even also breaking (2H/4H) channel hence cancelling the downward (D+) pattern or will it really ? 612 first has to be confirmed as a new support (Kase), in a largely overbought (D+) environment, so even a spurrious breakout could end up in a return to gravity. All (4H-) time frames tell us to go with the flow for the time being.

The report was overly cautious on USDCHF which fell abruptly to the next salient level i.e. 922 thus endorsing a new support above 208 pivot (2085 to be exact) on EURGBP. It hence seems the BNS is happy with a weaker CHF. While very bearish, it is not clear whether USDCHF will not try and creep back to 927-928 former support, at least to test it for a possible now wave of selling to 918.

 

( Posted 7:20 AM UK )

 

NB: There will be no report from Oct 25th to 29th and it is increasingly likely this blog will turn private in the following weeks.

 

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