ES has again bumped on 1187 and remains quite congested in the upper half of the (4H) trading range, i.e. 1172-1187. Should the 1172 pivot level break (unclear at this point), ES will hover just as directionless in the lower half of the same range. 1156-1160 is the major resilience level on (4H+/D) but a drop to that lower part of the range would already indicate a change of tone after over two weeks of congestion on target. Only the amazing resilience of long term players (weekly/monthly) can explain why selling pressure has been so subdued in the last week.
TF looks just as choppy and directionless (4H) yet looks almost ready to give up and go south. Selling pressure is not substantial here either, so we will monitor key levels which could trigger spurts of energy. Those levels (2H-) are 694, maybe 691, and mostly 687 which could certainly open the way to full on retracement. Having said that, the same (4H+/D) congestion experienced for over two weeks could just as well last one more day or two… Gravity should have the upper hand soon though…
EURUSD retraced a little higher than anticipated yesterday. While largely overbought, it however rose in a clean way to the 62% Fib, to then lose steam (Twitter). At this point in time, the retracement seems to have reduced selling pressure on higher (4H+) time frames, hence we should only see some erosion to 1.382, maybe back to 1.3795 or recent lows on 1.375. This bearish congestion we notice on the daily chart may however not convert into a full on retracement before quite some time (i.e. revisiting our earlier scenario which was slightly more bearish). The Euro needs to clearly break lows (~ 1.375) to engage into a more definite reversal.
Other Symbol:
T-Bond Fut. (@US): Congesting / testing lows on 129s. Could aim lower though with key test levels on 128 29/32 then 128 4/32. Like our other markets above, breaking range lows may determine a reversal on (D/W) likely, but yet to be confirmed.
( Posted 7:30 AM UK )
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