To our surprise, ES passed our target easily to reach 1103 on Friday and should now aim toward the 1109-1113 area where it should stall/congest. This bullish move we have followed on (2H/4H) time frames is now confirmed as an upswing on the (D) chart. The (D) range has been 1000-1125, still perceived as a volatile congestion on the (W) chart. The overall tone has now changed from bearish congestion to neutral congestion on those slow time frames, but our toolset does not indicate to any sort of bull run as seen in 2009.
TF follows similar dynamics on its (D) chart, within the 590-670 range. Despite the last week’s surge, we do not yet any definite indication of TF reaching range highs again. In the short term (2H/4H) TF should stall on mid high 640s, and then remain quite resilient. Then, during the course of the week, a retracement will be needed, maybe down to the salient mid-range test point (625). At this point in time, we would tend to believe TF will remain in the upper half of that range (D), and while some adjustment may be needed on non-directional (W) trades (from bearish congestion to neutral / slighly upward congestion), we anticipate no change in longer term range trading.
EURUSD was tracked pretty accurately last week, up to the anticipated test level (1.287). The Euro actually ended the week a little higher, and will most likely reach 1.292 – 1.293 on Monday. (4H-) times frames seem to indicate a possible stall near target, but longer (D/W) time frames while still in a (more bullish) congestion configuration now also point a little higher. We will have to review our outlook using (2H/4H) time frames when we reach our next target.
Quick note on GBPUSD: current upward retracement could reach (4H) range highs.
T-Bond (Symbol: US):
US has hit our retracement target. While this support level looks strong, we cannot discard the level breaking to 130. No change in (D+/W) outlook of a prolonged congestion around current high levels.
( Posted Saturday PM UK )
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